Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.