🔗 Share this article

At an lavish exclusive gathering hosted at Raffles hotel in central London this week, the great and the good from the remaining ranks of the Conservative party marked a major magazine's annual political honors.

With the magazine’s editorial line continuing to backing the Tories, despite the party facing an existential crisis posed by Reform, it was unsurprising that much of the gossip during the upscale reception focused on whether Kemi Badenoch’s job was at risk.

Party Rivalries Surface at Awards

James Cleverly, a former leadership contender, couldn’t resist a dig during his speech targeting the obvious aspirations of a fellow frontbencher, a key rival – who is Badenoch’s biggest threat.

“Do I seek her position? Am I going to stick the knife between her shoulder blades and steal the crown? Certainly not,” the experienced politician told the laughing audience while commencing the awards ceremony.

Jenrick, who came second, and has been pitching alarmingly to the right to take on Nigel Farage, did at least manage to chuckle. His strategic moves are far from discreet.

Countdown to Leadership Contest Starts

Earlier this year, a dissatisfied MP set up a countdown clock on social media showing remaining time before party regulations permit rivals to mount a challenge. That clock reaches zero on Sunday.

At that point, the Tory leader’s critics will be able to submit letters a leadership election. The rules changed last year to increase the threshold, meaning 30% from parliamentary colleagues are now needed, up from 15%, creating a higher bar for those trying to oust her.

Potential Contenders and Backing

But could any putative rivals – primarily Jenrick – secure support from colleagues needed to initiate proceedings? Tory insiders point to previous nomination totals during the last race: twenty-eight initially. “That forms the baseline,” they said.

Many exist of Tory MPs willing to share their frustrations about Badenoch: her style, her political judgment, her ability to cut through. However, generally, they are hesitant about committing yet another act of political regicide at this time.

Breathing Space and Election Concerns

Several party members further think her performance during the fall gathering, unveiling plans to remove property tax on primary homes, secured her a few months of breathing space.

“Although dissatisfied with Kemi’s leadership but we’ll be very careful about getting rid of her. The public already think we engage in internal conflicts. We should avoid providing further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.

That is not to say the plotting is not under way. “The leader has until spring. The local elections are going to be cataclysmic for the party. No one will desire to assume leadership preemptively and have to own the result. However, post-elections, we will need somebody who can take us toward renewal,” one shadow cabinet minister commented.

Survey Figures and Public Perception

Recent surveys indicate Badenoch has made little progress with the public over the last year and that she has fallen in personal approval. At -22 points, her standing is lower compared to her rival and another colleague, according to Ipsos Mori.

Additional research further reveals that the leader has persuaded just one in eight voters she is ready for higher office. The outlook improves among Conservative voters, with 54% saying they approve of her performance in her role, with fewer than a third opposing her continuation into the national campaign.

Upcoming Scenarios and Party Dynamics

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, a general agreement exists among the MPs that Badenoch will not be the one to lead the party into the next election.

The key disagreement is whether it would better to replace her in May and have a chance at stopping the rival party's advance – or leave it until closer to the general election if Reform falters, and public receptiveness improves toward Conservative messages.

Widely known that Jenrick thinks he is the man for the job. But his allies say he has no plans to move now, and is among those advocating patience until May.

Other Candidates and Approaches

Some speculate that a rescuer could emerge from less expected less prominent figures (the shadow climate secretary Claire Coutinho gets mentioned) or a member of the new intake with less obvious links to previous governments.

Cleverly, who came third, is considered a potentially unifying figure, and has been keeping his powder dry. Supporters indicate he thinks there is no alternative than current leadership, as anybody taking over now would face greater challenges.

Should a race begin, some would certainly encourage his candidacy, and he might reconsider another attempt. Several moderate legislators are organizing a rearguard action to block the frontrunner from winning.

Conservative Shift and Political Considerations

A well-connected Tory warned how momentum favors right-wingers within and beyond the party, mentioning names like Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “Opportunity exists for Cleverly given his experience and membership connections, while others oppose Jenrick at any costs.”

“Quite a lot of minds are on the need for a pact with the rival party at some stage. During the votes on social issues there was a lot of calls for expulsion of dissenters while Reform privately suggests Liberal Democrat you’d have to get rid of’. This advantages the challenger slightly.”

However, another added: “Jenrick winning is not uncertain. We could have a strong competition involving multiple candidates – Cleverly, Stride. The assumption that conservatives always wins the membership may not hold true.”